E-Mini: Big Outside Bear Bar

Market Overview: S&P 500 Emini Futures

The  weekly candlestick was a big outside bear bar, reversing down from a lower high major trend reversal. The bears want this to be the start of the bear leg testing the October low. The bulls hope that the current pullback will form a higher low or a double-bottom bull flag with the December low. Odds slightly favor sideways to down for next week.

Emini futures

The Weekly S&P 500 Emini chart

Weekly S&P 500 Emini chart

• This week’s Emini candlestick was a big outside bear bar closing near its low.
• Last week, we said that odds favor the Emini to trade at least a little higher and traders will see if the bulls can create a strong follow-through bull bar or will the market trade slightly higher but stall and close as a bear bar or a doji with a long tail above.
• This week traded above last week’s high but reversed to close far below last week’s low.
• The bears see the move up to February 2 high simply as a two-legged swing up.
• They got a reversal down from a higher high major trend reversal.
• This week, they got a reversal down from a lower high major trend reversal with February 2 high.
• While some traders may view December high as a major lower high, the bears would need to see a break above the August high to be sure of the end of the bear trend.
• The bears hope that this week’s strong spike down is the start of the bear leg to retest the October trading range low.
• They will need to create follow-through selling next week to increase the odds of lower prices.
• The bulls see the last 8 months as forming an inverted head and shoulders, with the December low being the right shoulder.
• However, an inverted head and shoulders pattern often ends up as a bear flag instead of a reversal pattern.
• The bulls hope that the current pullback will form a higher low or a double-bottom bull flag with the December low.
• They want another leg up forming a wedge pattern with the first two legs being December 1 and February 2.
• By breaking above the December high, they hope the bear trend of successively lower highs and lower lows has ended.
• They need to break far above the December and August highs to signal the end of the selloff.
• Since this week was a big bear bar closing near the low, odds slightly favor the Emini to trade at least a little lower.
• If the bears get strong follow-through selling next week, the odds of a retest of the October increase.

The Daily S&P 500 Emini chart

Daily S&P 500 Emini Chart

• The Emini traded slightly higher on Monday but reversed lower and traded down for the rest of the week.
• Previously, we said if there is a pullback higher, odds slightly favor at least a small second leg sideways to down to retest February low.
• The bears got the second leg sideways to down from a lower high major trend reversal (Mar 6).
• They see the move up from October simply as forming a double-top bear flag (Aug 16 and Feb 2) within a broad bear channel.
• They determine that the August high is the last major lower high, therefore, believe that the Emini is still in a bear trend.
• They need to continue creating consecutive bear bars closing near their lows to convince traders that a deeper pullback is underway.
• The next target for the bears is the December low, which will likely be tested soon.
• Since Friday was a big bear bar closing near its low, it is a strong sell signal bar for Monday.
• The bulls got a breakout above December high but did not get sustained follow-through buying.
• By trading above the December high, the bulls hope that the bear trend has ended, and the market has either transitioned into a trading range or a bull trend.
• The bulls want the current pullback to stall at a higher low or a double-bottom bull flag with the December low.
• They want a retest of February high and another big leg up, completing the wedge pattern with the first two legs being December 1 and February 2.
• They need to break far above the December and August highs, to convince traders that the selloff from January 2022 has ended.
• The Emini may have transitioned into a trading range phase between 4300 and 3500.
• Traders will BLSH (Buy Low, Sell High) until there is a breakout from either direction.
• The move up from October 2022 may simply be a bull leg within a trading range.
• The strong selloff this week increases the odds that the bear leg to retest the trading range low may have begun, especially if the bears get follow-through selling next week.
• For now, traders will see if the bears can create follow-through selling breaking far below the December low.
• Odds slightly favor sideways to down for next week.